Does an Undefeated Preseason Record Help Teams in the Regular Season?

Average Points Scored Per Regular Season (PF)
2018 373
2017 339
2016 370
2015 364
2014 360

 

2014 Preseason W L PF
Ravens 10 6 409
Giants 6 10 380
Vikings 7 9 325

Only three teams were undefeated in the 2014 preseason, only the Ravens would make the playoffs.

The Giants went 5-0 in the Preseason that year and immediately started the season at 0-2. Overall they finished the season 6-10 which included a 7 game losing steak. Ouch!

The 2014 Vikings with rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater at the helm never really got things going. Starting 2-2 in the first 4 weeks gave the Vikings a .500 win percentage, the highest they would see all year.

2015 Preseason W L PF
Chiefs 11 5 405

Only one team was undefeated in the Preseason of 2015. The Chiefs started the season in a slump starting 1-5, the Chiefs went on a ten game winning steak to finish the year 11-5. Very impressive! Ultimately the Chiefs had an impressive win in the wild card game vs the Texans (30-0), only to lose to you know who in the divisional round. THE PATS!

2016 Preseason W L PF
Ravens 8 8 343
Texans 9 7 279
Eagles 7 9 367
Vikings 8 8 327

Coming off a Preseason high the 2016 Ravens started 3-0 only to crash into a 4 game losing streak. In Raven fashion they win 2 games after their bye week to bring their record to 5-4. They were in the playoff hunt from that point on making it to 8-6 before losing the last two games of the year vs divisional opponents.

Unlike the Ravens, the Houston Texans did make the playoffs in 2016 with Brock Osweiler starting at QB for the majority of the season. The Texans went 5-1 in a weak division that year and won a wildcard matchup vs the Raiders, only to lose to you know who The PATS! in the divisional round.

Carson Wentz’s rookie year started out hot with Eagles winning by large margins to start 3-0. After having an early bye week in week 4, the Eagle’s season crumbled by going 4-9. Its ok they won the Super Bowl a year later.

What’s interesting is these teams seem to start the season hot after going undrafted in the preseason and the Viking were no different. They started 5-0 going into their bye week. They finished 3-8 after the bye week.

2017 Preseason W L PF
Ravens 9 6 395
Browns 0 16 234
Broncos 5 11 289
Seahawks 9 7 366

Yes the Ravens are on this list a lot. The 2017 Ravens started the season with a 4-5 record going into the bye week. They would go on to win 5 of their last 7 games and get knock out of the playoff hunt by the brave and beautiful Andy Dalton.

This one instance alone explains why being undrafted in the Preseason means nothing. The Cleveland Browns went 4-0 in the Preseason and went 0-16 in the Regular Season, so just because a player plays well in the Preseason doesn’t mean anything when it comes to the regular season. They are two different speeds.

The year of Trevor Siemian that was almost a story but then wasn’t. Like other teams who go undrafted in the preseason the Broncos started hot with a 3-1 record. They would only win 2 more games the rest of the season. They did have a shutout on the Jets that year worth noting.

The Seahawks were good most of the year in 2017 by starting 5-2. They came up short in some late games that really mattered which eliminated them from the playoff hunt.

2018 Numbers W L PF
Ravens 10 6 389

No but really what’s the deal with the Ravens winning all these preseason games? They are undefeated again in 2019 making them undefeated in the Preseason the late 5 of 6 years. In 2018 the Ravens finished went 6-1 after their bye week to make the playoffs.

Now entering the undefeated Preseason arena for 2019…

Ravens

Giants

Buffalo Bills  

 

Is there any significance to an undefeated preseason?

NO…

  • Overall wins are up about 1/2 a win compared to the league average.
  • Overall Points For (PF) is higher than the league average by 5.
  • Without CLE.(outlier) Wins are .86 higher than an average team wins.Points are up by 10 on average.
  • NOT Largely SIGNIFICANT WHATSOEVER but a small amount of evidence exists to support teams are average or slightly better than average compared to the rest of the league.

 

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